Nicholas Vardy, The Global Guru
Europe-based Nicholas Vardy holds degrees from Stanford and Harvard and is known as ‘The Global Guru’ for his international investment expertise. He is editor of the wealth-building newsletter Global Stock Investor, as well as a successful weekly trading service, Global Bull Market Alert, and a weekly free e-newsletter, The Global Guru. Nicholas is the founder of the London Junto, a monthly gathering in the heart of London’s hedge fund community.
Millicom International (NASDAQ: MICC)
The explosion in cell phone usage is one of my favorite top down themes in global investing. No technology has spread wider and more quickly than cell phones. While it took TV thirty years to penetrate households across the globe, cell phones managed to achieve this in less than a single decade.
My top pick to profit from this theme is Luxembourgbased Millicom International Cellular S.A. (MICC), the ‘Indiana Jones’ of the cell phone industry. The company is one of a handful of global players that are profiting from expansion in cell phone markets where others fear to tread.
Millicom’s strategy has been unique and daring. It has cobbled together a patchwork empire that consists of 16 countries in Central America, South America, Africa, South and Southeast Asia. Today, Millicom has 20 million subscribers.
By picking less than sexy markets — ones that are under the radar of the major wireless firms — Millicom has been profiting handsomely as demand for cell phone services has exploded. Just how successful has this strategy been? Millicom’s split adjusted stock price has increased close to 120-fold since July 2002. Today, it boasts market capitalization of more than $12.5 billion _ not bad, for the runt of the cell phone litter. Although most of Millicom’s sales growth has come from traditional Latin American properties, more than half of Millicom’s customers today are in Africa and Asia.
Given the relatively low cell penetration rates, Africa is the fastest growing region of the world in terms of cell phone use. Cell phone penetration is only 14% compared with 20% in the Middle East, 25% in Asia and more than 80% in Western Europe. Millicom’s financial results also have been stellar. Net earnings in the third quarter rose 60% to $296 million on revenue growth of 77% to $686 million. Total subscriber numbers soared 77% on a year-on-year basis to 20 million, including two million additions in the latest quarter.
Another vote of confidence? The chief executive officer of Millicom recently exercised 700,000 shares of stock options. Whether the company grows on its own or is taken over by one of the major cell phone companies, I expect Millicom’s stock to continue to soar in 2008.
Sincerely,
Nicholas A. Vardy
Editor, Global Stock Investor
www.GlobalStockInvestor.com